Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a ADO Den Haag win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an ADO Den Haag win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.05) 
