As bad as it was for them at Arsenal this week, Lens have shown the ability to pick themselves up after a disappointing result, while their defensive shape has improved tremendously versus French opponents.
There have been a few positive takeaways for Lyon in recent matches, but not enough for us to believe their attacking quality has improved, with Les Gones tied for the fewest goals scored in Ligue 1 to date (nine).
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 25.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Lyon win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
