SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 4 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 5 | Malta | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 4 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Greece | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Republic of Ireland | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Netherlands | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 76.78%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 8.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.7%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-2 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malta would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | Gibraltar |
76.78% ( -0.99) | 14.38% ( 0.39) | 8.84% ( 0.6) |
| Both teams to score 51.31% ( 1.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.2% ( 0.26) | 32.8% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.51% ( 0.3) | 54.49% ( -0.3) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93% ( -0.14) | 7% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.38% ( -0.37) | 25.61% ( 0.37) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.17% ( 1.53) | 44.82% ( -1.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.21% ( 1.21) | 80.79% ( -1.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | Gibraltar |
| 2-0 @ 11.09% ( -0.32) 3-0 @ 9.83% ( -0.36)2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 6.54% ( -0.29)4-1 @ 5.25% ( -0)5-0 @ 3.48% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.15)5-1 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.09)6-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.09)6-1 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.5% Total : 76.78% | 1-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.2)0-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.97% Total : 14.38% | 1-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.09)Other @ 1.67% Total : 8.84% |
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