SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 77.26%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 9.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Southampton |
77.26% ( -0.39) | 13.44% ( 0.16) | 9.31% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 58.03% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.1% ( -0.04) | 25.9% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.91% ( -0.05) | 46.09% ( 0.04) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.55% ( -0.08) | 5.44% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.71% ( -0.21) | 21.29% ( 0.21) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.37% ( 0.42) | 38.63% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.63% ( 0.4) | 75.37% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Southampton |
| 2-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 8.22% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.1)1-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.78% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.66% ( 0)4-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.7% Total : 77.26% | 1-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 13.44% | 1-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 2% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 9.31% |
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