SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 65.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 15.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.84%) and 0-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Southampton win it was 2-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Manchester City |
15.15% ( -0.06) | 19.08% ( -0.31) | 65.77% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 55.08% ( 0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.55% ( 1.36) | 38.45% ( -1.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.26% ( 1.43) | 60.74% ( -1.43) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.83% ( 0.78) | 38.17% ( -0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.07% ( 0.74) | 74.93% ( -0.74) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.08% ( 0.49) | 10.91% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.91% ( 1.07) | 35.09% ( -1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 4.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.03% Total : 15.15% | 1-1 @ 8.89% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0.09)0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.27)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.16% Total : 19.08% | 0-2 @ 10.22% ( -0.24) 1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0.03)0-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.42)0-3 @ 7.55% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 7.27% ( 0.12)0-4 @ 4.18% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 4.03% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.13)2-4 @ 1.94% ( 0.11)0-5 @ 1.85% ( 0.07)1-5 @ 1.78% ( 0.1)Other @ 4.38% Total : 65.77% |
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