SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.56%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Leicester City |
48.11% ( 0.15) | 22.21% ( -0.04) | 29.69% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 65.43% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.44% ( 0.14) | 34.57% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.5% ( 0.16) | 56.5% ( -0.16) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.15% ( 0.11) | 14.85% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.83% ( 0.2) | 43.18% ( -0.19) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.84% ( 0.01) | 23.17% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.96% ( 0.01) | 57.05% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Leicester City |
| 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.26% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.98% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 48.11% | 1-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.21% | 1-2 @ 7.02% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.03% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.19% ( 0)Other @ 3.04% Total : 29.69% |
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