Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Melbourne Victory
41.64% ( -0.16)	24.76% ( -0.04)	33.6% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 58.05% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.96% (

0.26)

45.04% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.61% (

0.25)

67.39% (

-0.25)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.35% (

0.03)

21.65% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.22% (

0.05)

54.77% (

-0.05)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.09% (

0.25)

25.91% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.09% (

0.33)

60.9% (

-0.34)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 41.64%

Melbourne Victory 33.6%

Draw 24.76%

Melbourne City	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.73% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.51% Total : 41.64%	1-1 @ 11.59% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.76%	1-2 @ 7.83% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.58% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.46% Total : 33.6%