SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 58.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.44%) and 1-0 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.5%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
58.2% ( 0.61) | 20.94% ( 0.03) | 20.86% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 60.1% ( -1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.7% ( -0.98) | 37.3% ( 0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.49% ( -1.06) | 59.51% ( 1.07) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.37% ( -0.14) | 12.63% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.24% ( -0.29) | 38.76% ( 0.29) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.79% ( -1.13) | 31.22% ( 1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.44% ( -1.33) | 67.56% ( 1.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.31)1-0 @ 8.16% ( 0.34)3-1 @ 6.78% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.82% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 3.51% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.98% Total : 58.2% | 1-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.94% | 1-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.67% Total : 20.86% |
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