Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.38%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 25.59% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.68%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Brisbane Roar	Draw	Melbourne City
25.59% ( -0.25)	20.02% ( -0.06)	54.38% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 70.14% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.99% (

0.06)

27.01% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.5% (

0.08)

47.5% (

-0.08)

Brisbane Roar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.25% (

-0.13)

21.75% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.07% (

-0.19)

54.93% (

0.19)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.64% (

0.1)

10.36% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.15% (

0.22)

33.85% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Brisbane Roar 25.59%

Melbourne City 54.38%

Draw 20.02%

Brisbane Roar	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 5.95% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) 4-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 25.59%	1-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.25% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.65% Total : 20.02%	1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.68% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.11% ( 0) 2-3 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.38% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 3.78% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 2.89% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 1.47% ( 0) 2-5 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.13% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.73% Total : 54.38%