SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.73%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 23.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Progreso |
50.73% ( -0.09) | 25.38% ( 0) | 23.88% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.57% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.88% ( 0.07) | 53.12% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.3% ( 0.06) | 74.69% ( -0.06) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.04% ( -0.01) | 20.95% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.3% ( -0.01) | 53.7% ( 0.01) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.71% ( 0.11) | 37.28% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.93% ( 0.11) | 74.07% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 12.2% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.9% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.47% Total : 50.72% | 1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.88% Total : 25.37% | 0-1 @ 7.71% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.7% Total : 23.88% |
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