SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | River Plate |
43.36% ( -0.02) | 27.67% ( 0) | 28.97% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.95% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.53% ( -0.01) | 58.47% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.94% ( -0.01) | 79.05% ( 0) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.25% ( -0.01) | 26.74% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.98% ( -0.02) | 62.01% ( 0.02) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.09% ( 0.01) | 35.91% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.31% ( 0) | 72.69% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 12.66% 2-1 @ 8.55% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.35% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.24% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 43.35% | 1-1 @ 12.97% 0-0 @ 9.6% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.38% Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.67% | 0-1 @ 9.84% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.04% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.27% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.72% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 1.97% Total : 28.97% |
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