SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 20.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.3%) and 0-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Nacional win it was 2-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
20.28% ( 0.07) | 21.57% ( -0.05) | 58.14% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 56.89% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.92% ( 0.34) | 41.07% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.53% ( 0.35) | 63.47% ( -0.34) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.05% ( 0.27) | 33.94% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.38% ( 0.29) | 70.62% ( -0.29) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.13% ( 0.11) | 13.87% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.73% ( 0.21) | 41.26% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 2.75% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.14% Total : 20.28% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.57% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 9.19% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 6.54% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.05% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.99% 2-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.28% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 58.14% |
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