It may take more than 90 minutes to separate two well-matched sides, with neither having started the year sharply. Although Fiorentina do not tend to travel too well, their recent pedigree in knockout competition is notable, while Napoli are missing key players and clearly lack last year's cohesion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 48.59%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
2.14) 
-0.16) 
