SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.01%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | Orlando City |
51.01% ( -0.14) | 22.94% ( 0) | 26.06% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 59.68% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.18% ( 0.09) | 40.82% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.79% ( 0.1) | 63.2% ( -0.1) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.86% ( -0.02) | 16.14% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.43% ( -0.03) | 45.57% ( 0.03) |
| Orlando City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.17% ( 0.15) | 28.83% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.31% ( 0.19) | 64.69% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | Orlando City |
| 2-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 3.51% Total : 51.01% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.93% | 1-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.79% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.42% Total : 26.06% |
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