SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 20.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
57.79% ( -2.03) | 22.19% ( 0.29) | 20.02% ( 1.75) |
| Both teams to score 54.37% ( 2.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.79% ( 1.33) | 44.21% ( -1.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.41% ( 1.28) | 66.58% ( -1.28) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.97% ( -0.21) | 15.02% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.5% ( -0.4) | 43.5% ( 0.39) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.99% ( 2.66) | 36.01% ( -2.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.21% ( 2.62) | 72.79% ( -2.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.69) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0)2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.72)3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.51)3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.26)4-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.79% | 1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.36)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.18% | 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.41)0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.26)2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.14)Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.02% |
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