SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
54.69% ( -0.02) | 22.85% ( 0.1) | 22.46% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 55.79% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.93% ( -0.54) | 44.07% ( 0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.55% ( -0.53) | 66.45% ( 0.53) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.98% ( -0.2) | 16.02% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.65% ( -0.37) | 45.35% ( 0.37) |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.43% ( -0.37) | 33.57% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.78% ( -0.41) | 70.22% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 1-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.47% Total : 54.69% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.84% | 0-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.27% Total : 22.46% |
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