Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 47.04%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
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