SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 56.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 18.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.41%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (7.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orenburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
56.21% ( 0.1) | 24.82% ( -0.05) | 18.98% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 44.86% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.96% ( 0.14) | 56.04% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.88% ( 0.12) | 77.12% ( -0.11) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.11% ( 0.09) | 19.89% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.99% ( 0.15) | 52.01% ( -0.15) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.99% ( 0.03) | 44.01% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.87% ( 0.03) | 80.13% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
| 1-0 @ 14.13% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.41% 2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.04% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.51% Total : 56.2% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.62% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.76% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.3% 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 1.73% Total : 18.98% |
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