Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 53.04%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 21.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
