SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Aston Villa |
38.94% ( -0.03) | 25.82% ( -0.01) | 35.23% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 54.72% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.5% ( 0.03) | 49.49% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.47% ( 0.03) | 71.52% ( -0.03) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( -0.01) | 24.96% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.39% ( -0.01) | 59.61% ( 0) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.93% ( 0.04) | 27.06% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.56% ( 0.05) | 62.43% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 9.37% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.93% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.01% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.94% | 1-1 @ 12.25% 0-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 8.83% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.01% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.51% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.42% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 3.05% Total : 35.23% |
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