SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 76.73%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 9.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.08%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 1-2 (2.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
76.73% ( -0) | 13.95% ( 0.01) | 9.31% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 55.53% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.24% ( -0.06) | 28.76% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.31% ( -0.07) | 49.69% ( 0.07) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.87% ( -0.01) | 6.13% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.75% ( -0.03) | 23.25% ( 0.04) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.16% ( -0.05) | 40.84% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.59% ( -0.05) | 77.42% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 2-0 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 9.08% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.74% ( 0)3-1 @ 8.13% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 6.34% ( 0)4-1 @ 5.68% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.54% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.65% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.47% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.42% ( -0)Other @ 4.59% Total : 76.73% | 1-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 13.95% | 1-2 @ 2.8% ( -0) 0-1 @ 2.24% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0)0-2 @ 1% Other @ 2.1% Total : 9.31% |
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