SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.96%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 20.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.41%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Cerro |
50.96% ( 0.08) | 28.88% | 20.16% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 36.85% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.57% ( -0.07) | 67.43% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.45% ( -0.04) | 85.55% ( 0.04) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.86% ( 0.01) | 27.14% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.46% ( 0.01) | 62.53% ( -0.01) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.57% ( -0.14) | 49.43% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.74% ( -0.1) | 84.26% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 17.49% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 11.4% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.5% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 1.57% Total : 50.94% | 0-0 @ 13.41% ( 0.03) 1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.31% Total : 28.87% | 0-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 20.16% |
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