Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.88%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 21.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.95%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.

Result
Cerro	Draw	Penarol
21.28% ( 0.47)	27.83% ( 0.43)	50.88% ( -0.89)

Both teams to score 40.36% (

-0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.37% (

-0.91)

63.63% (

0.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.08% (

-0.65)

82.92% (

0.66)

Cerro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.1% (

-0.03)

45.9% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.36% (

-0.03)

81.64% (

0.03)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.61% (

-0.82)

25.39% (

0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.8% (

-1.14)

60.19% (

1.14)

Score Analysis

Cerro 21.28%

Penarol 50.88%

Draw 27.83%

Cerro	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 9.08% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.66% Total : 21.28%	1-1 @ 12.44% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 3.32% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.42% Total : 27.83%	0-1 @ 15.97% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 10.95% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 8.53% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 5% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.15) 0-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.97% Total : 50.88%