SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.85%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 25.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 0-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
45.85% ( 1.65) | 28.83% ( -0.02) | 25.32% ( -1.63) |
| Both teams to score 41.66% ( -1.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.02% ( -0.74) | 63.98% ( 0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.83% ( -0.53) | 83.17% ( 0.53) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.95% ( 0.52) | 28.05% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.3% ( 0.65) | 63.7% ( -0.66) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.9% ( -1.88) | 42.1% ( 1.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.48% ( -1.67) | 78.52% ( 1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 15% ( 0.61) 2-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.52)2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.59% Total : 45.84% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 11.8% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.47% Total : 28.82% | 0-1 @ 10.21% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.35)0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.14% Total : 25.31% |
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