SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
37.13% ( 0.06) | 29.07% ( 0.02) | 33.81% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 44.59% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.87% ( -0.06) | 62.13% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.17% ( -0.05) | 81.83% ( 0.05) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.88% ( 0) | 32.12% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.4% ( 0) | 68.6% ( -0) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.69% ( -0.09) | 34.31% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.98% ( -0.09) | 71.02% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 12.51% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.6% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 37.12% | 1-1 @ 13.38% 0-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.59% Total : 29.06% | 0-1 @ 11.78% 1-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.3% Total : 33.8% |
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