SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.15%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.69%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
24.58% ( -0.02) | 27.27% ( -0) | 48.15% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 44.98% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.56% ( -0.01) | 59.44% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.19% ( -0) | 79.81% ( 0) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.82% ( -0.02) | 40.18% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.18% ( -0.02) | 76.82% ( 0.02) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.2% ( 0.01) | 24.79% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.63% ( 0.01) | 59.37% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0) 2-1 @ 5.78% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.14% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.76% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 1.34% Total : 24.58% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.96% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0)Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.27% | 0-1 @ 13.89% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.69% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.5% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.87% 0-4 @ 1.57% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.43% Other @ 2.25% Total : 48.14% |
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