SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.37%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 25.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Nacional |
47.37% ( -0.7) | 26.65% ( 0.25) | 25.98% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 47.87% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.68% ( -0.63) | 56.32% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.65% ( -0.51) | 77.35% ( 0.52) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.21% ( -0.6) | 23.79% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.05% ( -0.87) | 57.95% ( 0.87) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.81% ( 0.04) | 37.19% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.02% ( 0.04) | 73.98% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 12.7% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 9.12% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.37% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.59% Total : 47.37% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.74% Total : 25.98% |
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