SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 28 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 29 | 16 | 52 |
| 3 | Boston River | 27 | 10 | 48 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boston River | 27 | 10 | 48 |
| 4 | Penarol | 27 | 10 | 45 |
| 5 | Deportivo Maldonado | 28 | 5 | 45 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 22.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
49.58% ( -0.11) | 27.58% ( 0.05) | 22.84% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 42.59% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.34% ( -0.1) | 61.65% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.52% ( -0.08) | 81.48% ( 0.08) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.89% ( -0.1) | 25.11% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.19% ( -0.13) | 59.81% ( 0.13) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.87% ( 0) | 43.12% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.6% ( 0) | 79.4% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 14.96% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 49.58% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0)Other @ 0.51% Total : 27.57% | 0-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.48% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 1.03% Total : 22.84% |
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