SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
32.35% ( -0.61) | 28.04% ( 0.29) | 39.62% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 47.22% ( -0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.25% ( -1.15) | 58.75% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.73% ( -0.9) | 79.28% ( 0.9) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.45% ( -1.02) | 33.55% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.81% ( -1.13) | 70.19% ( 1.13) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.07% ( -0.37) | 28.93% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.19% ( -0.46) | 64.81% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.44% Total : 32.34% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.42)2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.03% | 0-1 @ 12.03% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 7.47% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.09% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 1.66% Total : 39.61% |
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