With a massive CCL semi-final just around the corner, the Union might have one eye on this game and another on their opening match with LAFC.
That being said, both teams have quality all over the field, but the Reds have struggled to close out fixtures this year, while it has been the opposite story for Philly.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 69.61%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 12.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.45%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
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