SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 61.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 18.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 1-0 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Toronto win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | Toronto |
61.51% ( 0.05) | 20.1% ( -0.02) | 18.38% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 58.7% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.88% ( 0.03) | 37.12% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.68% ( 0.03) | 59.31% ( -0.03) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.35% ( 0.02) | 11.65% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.31% ( 0.05) | 36.69% ( -0.05) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.44% ( -0.02) | 33.55% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.8% ( -0.02) | 70.19% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-1 @ 9.87% 2-0 @ 9.03% ( 0)1-0 @ 8.4% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.48% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.08% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.63% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.32% Total : 61.51% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.91% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 0.23% Total : 20.1% | 1-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.82% ( -0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 18.38% |
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