Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
0.22) 
-0.24) 
