SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 77.36%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 8.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.29%) and 1-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Arouca |
77.36% ( 1.22) | 14.31% ( -0.51) | 8.34% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 49.04% ( -1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.58% ( 0.04) | 34.42% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.67% ( 0.04) | 56.34% ( -0.04) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.76% ( 0.26) | 7.25% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.74% ( 0.67) | 26.26% ( -0.67) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.87% ( -1.53) | 47.14% ( 1.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.41% ( -1.18) | 82.59% ( 1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 11.76% ( 0.29) 3-0 @ 10.29% ( 0.38)1-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.34)4-1 @ 5.08% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.14)5-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.07)6-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.12)6-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.15% Total : 77.35% | 1-1 @ 6.74% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.83% Total : 14.31% | 0-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.2)0-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.27% Total : 8.34% |
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