SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 51.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
51.87% ( -0.05) | 24.94% ( -0.12) | 23.18% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 50.09% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.95% ( 0.62) | 52.05% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.22% ( 0.53) | 73.78% ( -0.53) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.94% ( 0.23) | 20.05% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.72% ( 0.36) | 52.28% ( -0.36) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.66% ( 0.5) | 37.34% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.87% ( 0.5) | 74.12% ( -0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 12.03% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.73% Total : 51.87% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.19)2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.91% Total : 24.94% | 0-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.68% Total : 23.18% |
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