Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
