SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Liverpool |
45.38% ( -1.21) | 25.58% ( 0.56) | 29.04% ( 0.65) |
| Both teams to score 53.22% ( -1.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.6% ( -2) | 50.4% ( 2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.66% ( -1.8) | 72.34% ( 1.8) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.81% ( -1.37) | 22.18% ( 1.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.41% ( -2.11) | 55.58% ( 2.11) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.39% ( -0.55) | 31.6% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.99% ( -0.64) | 68.01% ( 0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Liverpool |
| 1-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.41) 2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.28)3-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.18)4-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.26% Total : 45.37% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.55)2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.58% | 0-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 7% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.81% Total : 29.04% |
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