SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (11.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
36.76% ( 0.07) | 28.68% ( -0.02) | 34.56% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.75% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.25% ( 0.08) | 60.75% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.2% ( 0.06) | 80.8% ( -0.06) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.36% ( 0.09) | 31.64% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.95% ( 0.1) | 68.05% ( -0.1) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.93% ( 0.01) | 33.07% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.33% ( 0.01) | 69.67% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 12.04% 2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.9% Total : 36.76% | 1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.67% | 0-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.72% 0-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0)Other @ 2.56% Total : 34.56% |
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