SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 55.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 23.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.32%) and 0-1 (7.05%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Ajax |
23.73% ( -8.99) | 21.09% ( -1.91) | 55.18% ( 10.9) |
| Both teams to score 63.77% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.69% ( 2.63) | 34.31% ( -2.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.78% ( 2.91) | 56.21% ( -2.91) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.91% ( -4.53) | 27.09% ( 4.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.52% ( -6.32) | 62.47% ( 6.32) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.47% ( 4.64) | 12.53% ( -4.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.44% ( 8.86) | 38.56% ( -8.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.01% ( -1.55) 1-0 @ 4.43% ( -1.33)2-0 @ 2.9% ( -1.4)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.59)3-1 @ 2.62% ( -1.14)3-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.87)Other @ 3.79% Total : 23.73% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.95) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.42)0-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.48)3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.09% | 1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.61) 0-2 @ 7.32% ( 1.31)0-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 6.62% ( 1.36)0-3 @ 5.07% ( 1.54)2-3 @ 4.32% ( 0.41)1-4 @ 3.44% ( 1.12)0-4 @ 2.63% ( 1.08)2-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.52)1-5 @ 1.43% ( 0.61)0-5 @ 1.09% ( 0.55)3-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.12)2-5 @ 0.93% ( 0.32)Other @ 2.49% Total : 55.18% |
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