This has all of the makings of a fascinating match, and Athletic are more than capable of securing a positive result on Sunday evening. We were close to backing a draw here considering Vinicius's absence, but Bellingham's return is huge for Real Madrid, and we can see the hosts shading this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.43%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 18.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
-1.3) 
0.44) 
