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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 58.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.58%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
18.95% ( 0.95) | 22.76% ( 0.5) | 58.29% ( -1.44) |
| Both teams to score 50.73% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.83% ( -0.66) | 48.17% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.67% ( -0.6) | 70.33% ( 0.6) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.55% ( 0.7) | 39.45% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.85% ( 0.64) | 76.15% ( -0.64) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.78% ( -0.71) | 16.22% ( 0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.27% ( -1.31) | 45.73% ( 1.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 5.04% ( 0.2)2-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.21% Total : 18.95% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.96% Total : 22.76% | 0-1 @ 11.64% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 10.58% ( -0.23)1-2 @ 9.85% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 6.42% ( -0.3)1-3 @ 5.97% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.71% ( -0.14)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.06% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.11% Total : 58.28% |
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