SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 48.48%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.04%) and 1-2 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
23.7% ( 0.02) | 27.82% ( 0.01) | 48.48% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.82% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.2% ( -0.02) | 61.8% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.41% ( -0.01) | 81.59% ( 0.01) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.64% ( 0.01) | 42.36% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.25% ( 0.01) | 78.75% ( -0.01) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.3% ( -0.02) | 25.7% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.38% ( -0.03) | 60.62% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.46% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.02% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.1% Total : 23.7% | 1-1 @ 12.7% 0-0 @ 10.88% 2-2 @ 3.71% ( -0)Other @ 0.52% Total : 27.8% | 0-1 @ 14.79% 0-2 @ 10.04% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 8.63% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.55% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.91% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.55% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 2% Total : 48.47% |
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