SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 47.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.16%) and 1-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
25.8% ( 0.06) | 26.52% ( 0.07) | 47.68% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 48.09% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.04% ( -0.2) | 55.96% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.94% ( -0.16) | 77.06% ( 0.16) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.85% ( -0.06) | 37.15% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.06% ( -0.06) | 73.93% ( 0.06) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.51% ( -0.14) | 23.49% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.48% ( -0.21) | 57.52% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.05% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.41% ( 0)Other @ 1.75% Total : 25.81% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.78% Total : 26.51% | 0-1 @ 12.64% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 9.16% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.07% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.66% Total : 47.68% |
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