SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nagoya Grampus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
30.94% ( 1.43) | 25.83% ( 0.11) | 43.23% ( -1.53) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.42% ( 0.18) | 50.58% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.5% ( 0.16) | 72.5% ( -0.16) |
| Sagan Tosu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.66% ( 1.1) | 30.34% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.47% ( 1.29) | 66.53% ( -1.29) |
| Nagoya Grampus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.73% ( -0.65) | 23.27% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.8% ( -0.95) | 57.2% ( 0.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
| 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 2% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.94% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 10.29% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 8.95% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 7.5% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.25)2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.03% Total : 43.23% |
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