Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 24.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.

Result
Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Sagan Tosu
50.96% ( 0.08)	24.35% ( -0)	24.68% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 53.53% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.68% (

-0.05)

48.31% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.54% (

-0.05)

70.46% (

0.05)

Nagoya Grampus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.04% (

0.01)

18.96% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.51% (

0.02)

50.49% (

-0.02)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.05% (

-0.09)

33.95% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.38% (

-0.1)

70.62% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Nagoya Grampus 50.96%

Sagan Tosu 24.68%

Draw 24.35%

Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Sagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.7% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 50.96%	1-1 @ 11.56% 0-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.35%	0-1 @ 6.95% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.68%