Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
