Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 55.74%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 19.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for an Atletico Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
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