SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 43.36%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 27.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.88%) and 1-2 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Estudiantes |
27.38% ( -0.07) | 29.25% ( -0.07) | 43.36% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 41.97% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.72% ( 0.18) | 64.28% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.61% ( 0.13) | 83.38% ( -0.13) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.56% ( 0.04) | 40.43% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.95% ( 0.04) | 77.05% ( -0.03) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.47% ( 0.17) | 29.53% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.45% ( 0.21) | 65.55% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Estudiantes |
| 1-0 @ 10.81% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 5.97% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.8% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.48% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.33% Total : 27.38% | 1-1 @ 13.18% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.94% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.24% | 0-1 @ 14.56% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 8.04% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.41% Total : 43.36% |
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