SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 35.17%. A draw had a probability of 32.6% and a win for Union had a probability of 32.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.12%) and 2-1 (6.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.18%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (14.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Union |
35.17% ( 0.19) | 32.64% ( -0.04) | 32.19% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 35.69% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 27.5% ( 0.1) | 72.5% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 11.21% ( 0.06) | 88.79% ( -0.06) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.86% ( 0.2) | 39.14% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.14% ( 0.18) | 75.85% ( -0.18) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.65% ( -0.05) | 41.35% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.13% ( -0.04) | 77.87% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Union |
| 1-0 @ 15.18% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.39% Total : 35.17% | 0-0 @ 16.18% ( -0.06) 1-1 @ 13.4% 2-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 32.63% | 0-1 @ 14.29% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.04)1-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0)Other @ 2.06% Total : 32.18% |
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