SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 17.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.54%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union in this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Sarmiento |
57.05% ( 0.62) | 25.83% ( -0.27) | 17.12% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 39.43% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.4% ( 0.41) | 61.59% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.56% ( 0.3) | 81.44% ( -0.3) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.21% ( 0.43) | 21.79% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.01% ( 0.65) | 54.99% ( -0.65) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.41% ( -0.21) | 49.59% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.63% ( -0.15) | 84.37% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 16.46% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 12.54% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.71% Total : 57.04% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 10.8% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.39% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 7.58% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.89% Total : 17.12% |
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