SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Port win with a probability of 53.28%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 24.67% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Port win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.89%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai Port would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
53.28% ( 0.1) | 22.04% ( 0) | 24.67% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 61.38% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.07% ( -0.12) | 37.93% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.81% ( -0.12) | 60.19% ( 0.13) |
| Shanghai Port Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.66% ( -0.01) | 14.34% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.82% ( -0.02) | 42.18% ( 0.02) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.65% ( -0.14) | 28.35% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.92% ( -0.18) | 64.08% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.26% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.18% 5-0 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 3.41% Total : 53.28% | 1-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.12% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.49% Total : 24.67% |
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